Climate Emergency. The rising levels of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse effect gases in the atmosphere are producing a climate emergency.
The rise of greenhouse gas comes from the burning of fossil fuels and agriculture.
Among the impacts of climate change are warming oceans and ocean acidification causing species loss and extintion, melting polar ice and glaciers disturbing the polar life and causing rising sea levels, changes in weather patterns causing more extreme weather events bringing both flooding and droughts, which in turn affects food and water supplies.
The 2015 Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, agrees a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to aims to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
CO2 emissions must be reduced to limit the effects of climate change
The UK has committed to a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. Greater Manchester has announced the ambition to be carbon-neutral by 2038.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that current national state mitigation ambitions would not limit global warming to 1.5C.
Trafford Council has declared a climate emergency on 28th November,2018.
In 2017, the Industry and Commertial sector in Trafford emitted 821Kt (53.08% of year total) followed by Domestic at 368.4Kt (23.82% of year total) and Transport at 353.9Kt (22.88% of year total).
During 2016, the greenhouse gas emissions embedded in imported goods and services account for 45% of the total UK carbon footprint. Yet this is not currently counted towards national targets.
Reduction of CO2 Emissions Limiting global warming to 1.5°C can only be achieved if global CO2 emissions start to decline well before 2030.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5°C, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030.
With a reduction of 18.9% emissions from Domestic gas are still far from the target. Instead of decreasing, Motorway emissions have increased by 4.49% from 2010. A-roads and minor road emmisions are far from the target both with reductions around 10%.
Although emissions from the Industrial and Commercial sector are reducing, it has been a very large increment on the emissions from Large Industrial Installations.
CO2 emissions from large industrial installations have greatly increased in the borough from 2015.
Industrial and Commercial emmisions are the largest contributor to CO2 emissions in Trafford with 53.08% which is higher than England with 38.7%.
The map shows large point sources from the industrial and commercial sector derived mainly from the operator reported emissions. The point sources are concentrated over two industrial parks in Trafford with Carrigton Power Ltd. registering the largest emissions.
Environmental impact of Buildings. Reduccion of emissions from the Domestic sector can be achieved by improving the environmental impact of houses.
The plots show the Environmental Impact Rating of dwellings that have been constructed, sold, or let since 2008.
A large portion of the existing dwellings are rated D or E representing a potential for reduction in emmisions if retrofitted with energy efficiency measures, also benefiting the dwellers with lower bills. New buildings have a larger proportion of Environmental Impact Rating of B, representing the mayority of the 6.86% dwellings rated B of the total registered.
Domestic photovoltaic energy generation can reduce emissions and lower bills for residents.
The graph shows figures from the Feed-in Tariff Register. Under the Feed-in Tariffs scheme, energy companies paid the owners of renewable electricity generators for electricity exported to the grid at a fixed rate. The scheme closed on march 2019 and is due to be replaced with the Smart Export Guarantee obligation where rates and conditions will be determined by electricity companies.
Currently Trafford has the lowest photovoltaic domestic installations per 100,000 households among local authorities in Greater Manchester.
Renewable Energy Generation. To reduce CO2 emmisions the energy used for heating and power supply needs to come from renewable sources.
The renewable electricity generated on the GM local authorities excludes Offshore Wind, Wave/Tidal, Municipal Solid Waste, Animal Biomass and Cofiring as none of the boroughs generated electricity from these sources.
In Trafford renewable electricity is predominantly generated by Sewage Gas, Anaerobic digestion and Photovoltaics whilst other boroughs take advantage of other sources such as Landfill gas and Plant Biomass. All combined these renewable electricity sources generated 71GWh in 2017 which represent around 1% of the total energy consumption of Trafford (6286.56GWh).
Heat networks represent an opportunity to reduce emmision from heating by using thermal energy distribution. The estimated number of heat networks in Trafford is 52.
Transport fuel consumption is dominated by cars.
Petrol and Diesel cars together consume 69.3% of the total fuel for transport in Trafford 2017. Although the CO2 emissions vary according to the type of fuel, the difference is minimal, with petrol emitting 2,328 g/litre and diesel 2,614 g/litre.
Although fuel use from petrol cars has reduced since 2005, fuel use from diesel cars has increase during this period, with a similar total in 2017 to that of 2005.
To reduce carbon emissions from transport the use of conventional cars need to be reduced and switched to other forms of transport such as public transport, cycling and walking or electric vehicules.
Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
Air Quality. Lowering carbon emmisions can also lower another important and urgent problem: Air pollution.
Long-term exposure to air pollution can cause stroke, lung cancer, respiratory conditions and cardiovascular diseases, leading to reduced life expectancy. The plots show Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) measured at the three existing monitoring sites in Trafford.
The NO2 levels weekly plot shows that the level of pollution is higher during weekdays. The NO2 hourly plot shows that higher levels of pollution ocurr at commuting times when excesive traffic produce congestions.
The sessonality of pollution levels is clear on the NO2 monthtly plot with higher pollution during winter due to temperature inversion. Lower levels of pollution ocurr during summer also coinciding with less traffic.
Background pollution represents the lowest levels of ambient air pollution to which the population is chronically exposed.
The Greater Manchester map shows modelled Particulate Matter with a diameter of 2.5 μm (PM2.5) concentrations at a resolution of 1km x 1km squares. Particulate matter is composed of solid and/or liquid material from several origins including burning of fossil fuels for transport, industry, energy production and heating; dust from the construction industry, vehicle parts and road wearing and other natural sources. A secondary source of particulate matter comes from the chemical reaction of released gases from burning fossil fuels and agricultural gases mainly related to live stock waste, among others.
The background Particulate matter is higher on industrial areas and near busy roads. Although there are no harmless levels of particulate matter, one square over Partington exceed the WHO Air Quality guidelines limits for PM2.5.
Cycle Network. The current cycling network must be improved to encourage cycling.
There is an opportunity for reduction of green house gas emission contributing to climate change and reduction on air pollution by switching to transports alternatives such as cycling and walking.
Cycling also include the benefits of an active lifestyles and money savings for the commuting cyclist.
Currently there are large portions of the borough that lack of access to cycling routes.
Adaptation to Climate Change: Risk of flooding. The extreme weather caused by climate change will bring as a consequence increased rainfall and risk of flooding
Additionally to the risk of flooding from rivers and sea, the risk of flooding from surface water represent a more widespread threat to life, property and economy as it can affect larger areas.
Flooding from surface water is more likely on build up areas covered by concrete than in suburbs as heavy rainfall water cannot be absorbed by lawns.
DEFRA has made available an UK map of the risk of flooding.